High supply concern to weigh on CPO futures next week
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KUALA LUMPUR: The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is expected to experience technical correction next week, as concerns over production and inventory will weigh on investors’ appetite.
Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh said the current high supply in palm oil producing countries might continue to hurt CPO prices next week, which will likely range between RM3,400 and RM3,600 a tonne.
"The market will move in a yo-yo mode as investors are cautious. There are high inventories in producing countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia following good weather, and this will influence trading,” he told Bernama.
Commenting on the extension of Indonesia’s palm oil export levy waiver to Oct 31, Teh said the new policy would continue to weigh on the local market as the cheaper prices offered by Indonesia would definitely woo more buyers.
This included potential demand from India ahead of a series of Hindu festivals lined up over the next two months starting with Ganesh Chaturthi, Navaratri, Dussehra, and the biggest festival in the country, Deepavali.
"Price-wise, we may be losing to Indonesia. However, our ports efficiency that is better than Indonesia will provide us some advantages,” he said, citing forex speculative play by traders and the movement of ringgit versus the US dollar would also weigh on buying next week.
For the week-just-ended, Malaysian CPO futures started the week on a firm note mostly influenced by the bullish soybean market. Trend started to decline Thursday onwards due to concerns over inventory.,
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On Wednesday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association announced that Malaysia’s CPO production for August 1-20 rose 16.18 per cent month-on-month, with production in Peninsular Malaysia increasing by 11.87 per cent, Sabah (+33.36 per cent) and Sarawak (+4.66 per cent).
On a Friday-to-Friday basis, the CPO futures contract for spot month September 2022 increased by RM59 to RM4,149 a tonne, October 2022 advanced RM73 to RM4,174 a tonne, November 2022 was RM79 higher at RM4,172 a tonne, and December 2022 surged RM178 to RM4,281 a tonne.
Meanwhile, January 2023 rose RM87 to RM4,219 a tonne and February 2023 soared RM152 to RM4,333 a tonne.
Total volume expanded to 304,049 lots from 278,307 lots in the previous week, while open interest narrowed to 181,420 contracts from 183,505 contracts previously.
The physical CPO price for September South fell RM50 to RM4,250 a tonne. - Bernama